Great Leaders and Small Strategists

Rhenman depicts relation between environment and efficiency of company with next sequence:

Structural changes in environment provoke inconsistency of company and environment. This causes fall of company's external and internal efficiency, including disturbance and variations, and after that degeneration of organisational structure. As a company doesn't adapt to environment, threats and sanctions from environment come to company. After that company becomes aware of problem and starts to adapt to environment..

Structural changes in environment

The long expected fall of eastern block and communist system came at the end of 80's. That left whole environment of Yugoslavia (i.e. the world) on disposal of the only permanent super-power - USA. This could be and must be described as structural change of environment in Rhenman's model.

Inconsistency of environment and the system

Wittingly or mechanically not identifying structural changes in environment, Yugoslav authorities continued to practise cold-war strategy in last decade, hoping all the time that some counterweight to USA will be showed. This way authorities kept relations with some countries that doesn't have any strategic interest in Balkans (China) or with some obscure players (anybody remembers general Gratchov) in Russia, thus loosing support of country that has strategic interest in Balkans. So, Milosevic generated inconsistency of Yugoslavia and environment.

Degeneration of organisational structure

In the 80's Yugoslavia and Serbia as its part, although kind of non-rigid communist dictatorship, nevertheless was a system, with all its elements: legislative, executive and juridical authorities. By coming of Milosevic in power, all procedures and rules were destroyed. A state in which magistrates arbitrate for treason, in which over 50% of GNP is produced illegally, in which Minister of Justice is a man who was responsible for carrying out election fraud in 1996, in which anyone who disagrees with Great Leader is convicted for treason, that state is hardly to be called system.

Fall of efficiency

Gross national product of FRY in 1998 was some 60% of that one in 1989. Natural wages fell for some 80% in the same period. The number of unemployed rose to 2 millions (20% of total population, about 50% of active population). About half of a million citizens emigrated from the country, some 150,000 of them with university degree. Economy worked with losses for last ten years. Right on property was infringed (ICN Galenika is the most drastic example). Medical doctor examinations paid with pork, whiskey and coffee, job opportunities only with "special" reference, total corruption of the whole state apparatus, says that the decay of, not only the economy, but the whole system, would come even without this war.

Sanctions from environment

From 1991 to 1995 Yugoslavia was under the regime of UN trade and financial sanctions. Although UN trade sanctions were ceased, Yugoslavia is out of all integration. It is not a member of IMF, World Bank, World Trade Organisation, and SECI, to name some of them. Above, many trade sanctions from EU and USA were established. At the end, war destruction of Yugoslavia came, pushing it practically to 19th century. Destruction of electro-energetic system, oil industry, telecommunications, road infrastructure, Danube blockade results in that that Yugoslav citizens will survive next years on a level of African countries.

Awareness of the problem

Using media, police, army, availability of all country's resources, Milosevic succeeded for a long time in persuading the majority of citizens to think more how Russia, or China will react, than how to survive and how to make higher salary next month. At the end of 1996 this mind framework started to burst. With this war all of us finally became aware of the problem. We finally became aware that the system must be changed.

These last ten years showed that nobody in Serbia has capacity for strategic thinking. Nobody expected that from the people, but from the elite (both ruling and opposition) did.

Changes

External agents are needed to execute the changes in some system. America accepted (preoccupied) that role. It is sad that during the introduction of these changes it used forcible method (although that accords to its cowboy history). It is expected from America to use some other methods: informing, recruiting for changes, manipulating, negotiation, etc. This way sheriff killed thousands of innocent people with his revolver and endangered the survival of 10 million people more. About strategic, global implications of this war, ask Bzezynski and Kissinger.

Alex Corova
editor-in-chief of independent student newspaper

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